A business idea: Shopping Futures - Discuss, and Critique

I was walking home today, and was thinking about this idea. It definitely has some flaws and challenges, as I haven't taken the time to think it through. But here it is:

Set up an options market (like the stock market), where participants can buy, sell and trade 'options' of products that will be released in the near future, but whose release date is not yet known.

For instance, let's take Microsoft Vista (their new OS). Suppose the 'expected' price of Vista is $180 (it could be more or less, but for the sake of this example, let's say it is)

There can be 10 options that enable anyone to buy Vista during the week of July 1st- July 7th for $10. This option could be worth $5.
There could be 10 options that enable anyone to buy Vista during the week of Oct 1st - Oct 7th for $100. This option could be worth $10.
There could be 10 options to buy Vista during the week of November 1st - November 7th for $150. This option could be worth $15.
An option is worthless if the product was not released during that week. If it was released, then one can use that option to buy the product at a cheaper price. So for the option from July 1- July 7, it's unlikely Vista will be released during that time period. But if anyone takes the risk to buy that option and Vista was released early, then he/she would have a very hefty discount - he has the chance to buy Vista for just $10.

One can sell his option after buying it, as long as there's another buyer. This market won't just apply to software. It can apply to games, video consoles, tech toys, DVDs, computers, gadgets, etc. Basically any product that is widely anticipated whose release date is not yet known.

What do you think? There could be legal constraints/gambling laws but other than that, is it a sound idea?

 

I was actually thinking about this idea for online advertising as a way to minimize publisher's risk. You miss out on the chance for a big earnings spike, but in return you get a guaranteed set income.

 

I think that's a pretty good idea. People love to take risks and gamble for deals... You're right, you'd have to check on all the legalities... I think you'd have a lot of interest for this. You'd need to make sure you worded things easily for the technically challenged to ensure greater market spread...
You've got something going there I think.